Greek elections - September 2015 - First look at polls and possible coalitions

[ The following text is a "first-look" attempt at the general look-and-feel of the Greek elections to be held in late September. It serves as an overview to the "starting positions" of the political parties, as well as a minimal guide to the possible coalition governments that may be formed. It does not constitute a final election forecast and needs to be taken with a grain of salt. Consider the article A short primer on elections, parties and polls in Greece as a prerequisite. ]




According to the polls released till August 29th, the projected seat allocation in the next parliament (minus the bonus for the first party) ranges as such:


SYRIZA: 80-85
New Democracy: 70-75
Golden Dawn: 20-25
Potami/River: 17-22
KKE: 15-18
Independent Greeks: 0, 8-10
PASOK: 15-20
Centrists Union: 10-15
People's Unity/Popular Unity: 12-17


Sum of seats allocated: 250
Bonus seats for the first party: 50
Total seats in parliament: 300



The current political status quo specifies that:

• Golden Dawn and KKE are practically guaranteed to not participate in any kind of coalition government whatsoever.
• Independent Greeks cannot participate in the same coalition with either PASOK or Potami.
• People's Unity cannot participate in the same coalition with either PASOK, Potami or New Democracy.
• SYRIZA cannot participate in a coalition with New Democracy.

The current projection is that SYRIZA will win the elections, thus securing up to 135 seats (bonus 50 seats included). They would have three options:

1. Stick to the current coalition scheme with Independent Greeks (if they manage to secure representation) and invite Centrists Union to it. This coalition will control at most 155 seats, which may prove inadequate to form a sustainable government.
2. Consider a coalition with PASOK and Potami, thus securing around 165 seats. The coalition will have a more-centrist-than-left political orientation and may be easier communicated to the public by some systemic media via phrases such as "the political maturation of SYRIZA", however it may cause severe backlash among the younger anti-bailout voters of the party.
3. Reconcile their differences with People's Unity and with the help of Independent Greeks (if they manage to secure representation) and Centrists Union form a coalition that will control around 165 seats. At the moment, this scenario is not that plausible given the tense atmoshpere and harsh, public confrontation between SYRIZA and People's Unity after members of the latter party defected from the former.

In order for New Democracy to lead the elections, they would have to secure at least 80-85 seats, which when added to the bonus 50 seats, would tally up to 135 seats (In this case, SYRIZA would get around 70-75 seats). New Democracy would have only a single option of governing:

1. Join PASOK and Potami in forming a coalition that controls around 165 seats. The prior impression is that this particular coalition would intrinsically skew centre-right. However, if this were to happen, it would only serve to strengthen the anti-bailout sentiment that a large portion of Greeks hold, thus eating away at the legitimacy of the government. In that case, one could assume that there would be a peace offering to SYRIZA requesting some soft or passive parliamentary cooperation on a case-by-case basis, thus emulating in practice a "national unity government".